Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations since surpassing the $100,000 mark earlier this month, but historical trends suggest that a new all-time high could be within reach by mid-January, according to crypto research firm K33.
The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), increased by 6.1% on Tuesday, reaching approximately $98,679, recovering from a dip below $93,000 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The digital asset reached a record high of $108,309 on December 17, but faced a decline last week as stock markets also fell after the Federal Reserve signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025 than originally anticipated.
According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, the average duration between Bitcoin’s first and last all-time highs in its previous cycles was 318 days. Based on this pattern, investors might see Bitcoin peak again around January 17, 2025. The first record high of the current cycle was reached on March 5, 2024, suggesting that a final peak may align with this historical timeframe.
Bitcoin’s price behavior is often analyzed in four-year cycles, which correspond to phases of breakout, hype, correction, and accumulation. These cycles are closely tied to the Bitcoin halving event, which happens approximately every four years and reduces the reward for mining Bitcoin. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
If Bitcoin does experience a peak in mid-January, it would coincide with the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, scheduled for January 20. Lunde suggests that Trump’s election has fueled a strong rally in the fourth quarter, and the inauguration could mark the conclusion of this momentum.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin could potentially reach a cycle peak of $146,000, based on estimates from previous cycle highs, or even surge as high as $212,500, according to market capitalization analysis. However, Bitcoin’s relatively short history and the changing impact of the halving event mean that predictions should be taken with caution. Lunde also noted that the cyclical effects of Bitcoin may be diminishing over time.
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At the same time, market sentiment in the crypto space seems to be softening as the year ends, according to analysts from crypto trading firm QCP Capital. As of Monday, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw three consecutive days of outflows. Additionally, MicroStrategy, a prominent Bitcoin holder, recently acquired 5,262 bitcoins at $106,662 per coin for $561 million, bringing its total holdings to 444,262 bitcoins. However, analysts questioned whether MicroStrategy’s appetite for Bitcoin has waned at these price levels.
While stock market bulls are optimistic about a “Santa Claus rally” in the coming days, Bitcoin does not necessarily follow this trend. Historically, the S&P 500 has closed higher 77% of the time during the Santa Claus period since 1950, but Bitcoin has risen only half of the time during the 14 Santa Claus trading periods since 2010.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s trading volumes have been gradually decreasing since surpassing $100,000, signaling that bullish sentiment may be fading. Technical analyst Tyler Richey from Sevens Report Research highlighted that a bounce back toward $100,000 is a likely scenario following the recent weakness after the Federal Reserve’s announcements. He noted that if Bitcoin breaks above resistance in the $100,000 to $101,500 range, it could test its previous highs between $106,000 and $108,000. A failure to reach new highs could signal a bearish trend, with support levels potentially falling back to the low $90,000s. Conversely, new highs would bolster the bullish outlook, with a target of $118,000 in sight.