Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, tumbled below $95,000 on Monday, signaling a diminished likelihood of surpassing its earlier December peak of $108,000 before the year wraps up.
This downturn comes in stark contrast to earlier bullish predictions. After Donald Trump secured re-election in November, MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, projected that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by year-end. That forecast materialized briefly, with bitcoin climbing to $108,000 earlier this month. However, the cryptocurrency now hovers around $94,000, struggling to regain momentum.
Despite the current pullback, market experts remain confident about bitcoin’s prospects heading into 2025. Analysts at Bitfinex foresee significant upside potential, predicting a possible price range of $140,000 to $200,000 by mid-2025.
“Our minimum price target for bitcoin remains at $140,000, with potential peaks nearing $200,000,” Bitfinex analysts stated. “The ongoing bull market reflects robust institutional demand, bolstered by the January launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sustained spot accumulation. Historical trends suggest we are mid-cycle, following the April 2024 halving. The market’s likely peak will occur in the latter half of 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving.”
Post-halving years historically deliver bitcoin’s strongest rallies, and 2025 is expected to be no different. Anthony Rousseau, Head of Brokerage Solutions at TradeStation, describes the cryptocurrency as entering an “escape velocity” phase within its fourth halving cycle. This is driven by soaring adoption rates among corporate, institutional, and even sovereign investors.
“A supply shock is taking place in real time, as bitcoin’s fixed supply collides with increasing demand,” Rousseau noted. “This dynamic is propelling prices higher.”
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Rousseau attributed bitcoin’s remarkable trajectory in 2024 to groundbreaking developments, such as the introduction of the first bitcoin ETFs in the United States and the adoption of new accounting standards.
“Key changes have unleashed significant capital from corporate and institutional investors,” Rousseau explained. “The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB) approval of fair value accounting for bitcoin has eliminated a critical hurdle, allowing companies to hold bitcoin on their balance sheets with greater clarity and reduced risk. Additionally, ETF approvals by major players like BlackRock and Fidelity have opened the market to institutional investors, offering a regulated and secure path to bitcoin exposure.”
Although regulated banks have yet to broadly offer bitcoin custody services, some progress has been made. “The Bank of New York’s approval to provide custody services is a promising indicator,” Rousseau added. “As regulatory clarity improves, we expect more financial institutions to follow suit, unlocking the next wave of adoption and capital inflows.”
With two major catalysts — updated accounting standards and ETFs — already in place, analysts suggest that widespread adoption of custody solutions by banks and other institutions could accelerate bitcoin’s upward trajectory in 2025, paving the way for new all-time highs.