The 13-year civil war in Syria has escalated with a sudden rebel offensive on Aleppo, one of the country’s largest cities and an ancient economic center. This offensive represents one of the most significant rebel pushes in years, in a conflict whose repercussions have extended well beyond Syria’s borders.
This is the first significant opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when Russian airstrikes played a pivotal role in helping Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the city. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and other allies have been crucial in maintaining Assad’s grip on power, as he controls roughly 70% of Syria. The recent uptick in fighting could potentially lead to another volatile front in the region, coinciding with ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, where Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah are involved in separate battles.
Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria until 2014, pointed out that Israeli airstrikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets, combined with Israel’s recent ceasefire with Hezbollah, may have opened an opportunity for Syrian rebels to strike. The resurgence of fighting could have broad implications, including destabilizing the region further if Syrian government forces fail to contain the rebels. The involvement of foreign powers like Russia and Turkey could also intensify the situation, with each nation having distinct interests in Syria.
The group leading the offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has long been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the U.N. Founded by Abu Mohammed al-Golani in 2011, HTS initially had ties to al-Qaeda and engaged in extremist activities. Over time, however, Golani distanced the group from al-Qaeda and presented HTS as a governing body, attempting to project an image of moderation. Although HTS no longer maintains direct relations with al-Qaeda, it has continued to harbor various armed factions on its territory.
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Aleppo itself has been a focal point of the Syrian war. Once home to 2.3 million people, the city was divided between government and rebel forces from 2012 until 2016. The battle for Aleppo was one of the war’s bloodiest, with Russian airstrikes decimating entire neighborhoods, and the eventual surrender of the rebels marked a turning point in the conflict. Israel has continued airstrikes in Aleppo this year, targeting Hezbollah and Syrian military assets.
The fighting in Aleppo highlights the ongoing volatility in Syria and the broader Middle East, with regional powers and rebel factions vying for influence. The outcome of this offensive could have far-reaching consequences, both for Syria and the surrounding region.
