Before Bashar al-Assad’s brutal crackdown on protesters during the 2011 Arab Spring, which spiraled into the catastrophic civil war that continues today, his father Hafez al-Assad had already earned a reputation for ruthless repression. Together with his brother, he was responsible for quashing a 1982 uprising in Hama, where tens of thousands of people were killed in a massacre.
Now, Syrians, both inside the country and abroad, are celebrating the downfall of Bashar al-Assad. His fall was accelerated by a swift two-week offensive by rebels—mainly from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda—that advanced from Idlib through Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, all the way to Damascus. The future of Syria is now uncertain, as it enters a new chapter, but one thing is clear: the country is still grappling with an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Even before al-Assad’s removal, Syria was already facing severe challenges. The past few years, despite relatively calmer front lines, have seen the number of people in need of aid increase significantly due to the prolonged war, economic collapse, and the devastating February 2023 earthquakes, which killed over 5,900 people in northern Syria and more than 55,000 in neighboring Türkiye.
The United Nations’ 2024 humanitarian appeal estimated that 16.7 million out of 23.5 million Syrians (more than 70%) require some form of assistance—an all-time high since the war began. Many of these people have not been receiving sufficient aid due to funding shortages and logistical obstacles.
In the northwest, where HTS largely governs, two million people live in camps and informal settlements, often lacking basic necessities like electricity, sanitation, or adequate shelter. The region has suffered from a combination of hunger, inflation, aid cuts, and the aftermath of the earthquakes. Disease outbreaks, including scabies and cholera, are ongoing, while civilian infrastructure—particularly healthcare facilities—has been destroyed in airstrikes by both Russian and Syrian forces. Water and power supplies have been disrupted, especially in areas where Turkish airstrikes target Kurdish-held regions in the northeast.
The overall economic situation is dire, with over 90% of Syrians living in poverty. The collapse of the Syrian pound, combined with the effects of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and international sanctions, has exacerbated the situation. Despite the UN’s request for $4.07 billion to aid Syria in 2024, only 31.6% of the funds have been received so far.
Syria’s refugee crisis compounds these challenges. Approximately 4.9 million Syrians live as refugees in neighboring countries such as Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan. While some nations initially offered refuge, anti-Syrian sentiment has increased, leading to forced deportations, the construction of fences, and the closure of borders. Although some refugees may now feel safe returning, the widespread destruction in Syria raises questions about whether they will find homes to return to.
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Internally, Syria also has 7.2 million displaced people, not counting the 1 million people who fled due to escalating violence in the past month. Many of these individuals have been displaced multiple times. The northwest, where 3.4 million displaced people reside, has long been a hotspot for humanitarian need, as people continue to move to the region after being evacuated from other conflict zones.
The situation is further complicated by the presence of HTS, which is designated as a terrorist group by the UN and major aid donors like the US and UK. While the UK has signaled that it may reconsider its stance, international donors remain cautious about engaging with HTS directly. For years, aid to rebel-held areas has been filtered through the UN due to concerns about supporting terrorist organizations. This has made long-term aid and reconstruction efforts challenging. HTS, for its part, is attempting to rebrand itself, with leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani promising security for minorities and continuity of state institutions, but it remains unclear whether the international community will engage with them.
The redrawing of Syria’s political landscape requires a major shift in how humanitarian aid is delivered. HTS controls much of the northwest, while other rebel groups and Kurdish forces hold territories in the north and northeast. Aid distribution has traditionally been split, with UN-operated programs in government-controlled areas run from Damascus and cross-border aid directed from Türkiye to the northwest. However, tensions have existed between aid groups working in rebel areas and the Damascus-based UN, particularly over fears of sharing data with a government closely tied to al-Assad.
On December 7, as the rebels advanced toward Damascus, the UN announced that it was relocating non-essential staff as a precautionary measure. This was not an evacuation, but it highlighted the shifting dynamics on the ground. Despite this, local aid workers—many of whom are also displaced—continue to provide essential services. The Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets) is engaged in emergency response efforts, including clearing unexploded ordnance, and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent is supplying food, water, and medical assistance.
As Syria enters this uncertain phase, the humanitarian challenges are only growing, and the international community must quickly adapt to the new realities on the ground if it hopes to meet the needs of the Syrian people.